Parlay the People · 32 days to the 2026 election
Election odds from Kalshi and Polymarket, race by race
As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets say Democrats are favored to win the Senate (64%), the House (93%) and the 2028 presidency (62%). Parlay the People tracks every race on Kalshi and Polymarket, side by side, and keeps the price history.
Updated
2026 · Senate control2026 · House control2028 · Presidency
Democrats64%
Republicans37%
Democrats93%
Republicans7%
Democrats62%
Republicans38%
Closest 2026 races
- FL-22 (Florida)D 52%
- Georgia GovernorR 52%
- MI-04 (Michigan)R 52%
- Nevada GovernorR 52%
- IA-02 (Iowa)D 54%
- VA-01 (Virginia)R 54%
- Iowa SenateR 56%
- MI-07 (Michigan)D 58%
Where the exchanges disagree
Largest gaps in Democratic odds between Kalshi and Polymarket.
- CA-06 (California)K 90% · P 97% · 7.1 pts
- NC-11 (North Carolina)K 67% · P 63% · 4.1 pts
- Alaska SenateK 68% · P 71% · 3.9 pts
- MO-02 (Missouri)K 25% · P 28% · 3.4 pts
- FL-13 (Florida)K 27% · P 24% · 3.1 pts
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